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Figure 2.11 shows the land requirements for BECCS and afforestation in the selected 1.5C-consistent pathway archetypes, including the LED (Grubler et al., 2018)322 and S1 pathways (Fujimori, 2017; Rogelj et al., 2018)323 following a sustainable development paradigm. As discussed, these land-use patterns are heavily influenced by assumptions about, among other things, future population levels, crop yields, livestock production systems, and food and livestock demand, which all vary between the pathways (Popp et al., 2017)324 (Section 2.3.1.1). In pathways that allow for large-scale afforestation in addition to BECCS, land demand for afforestation can be larger than for BECCS (Humpenöder et al., 2014)325. This follows from the assumption in the modelled pathways that, unlike bioenergy crops, forests are not harvested to allow unabated carbon storage on the same patch of land. If wood harvest and subsequent processing or burial are taken into account, this finding can change. There are also synergies between the various uses of land, which are not reflected in the depicted pathways. Trees can grow on agricultural land (Zomer et al., 2016)326, and harvested wood can be used with BECCS and pyrolysis systems (Werner et al., 2018)327. The pathways show a very substantial land demand for the two CDR measures combined, up to the magnitude of the current global cropland area. This is achieved in IAMs in particular by a conversion of pasture land freed by intensification of livestock production systems, pasture intensification and/or demand changes (Weindl et al., 2017)328, and to a more limited extent, cropland for food production, as well as expansion into natural land. However, pursuing such large-scale changes in land use would pose significant food supply, environmental and governance challenges, concerning both land management and tenure (Unruh, 2011; Erb et al., 2012, 2016b; Haberl et al., 2013; Haberl, 2015; Buck, 2016)329, particularly if synergies between land uses, the relevance of dietary changes for reducing land demand, and co-benefits with other sustainable development objectives are not fully recognized. A general discussion of the land-use transformation in 1.5C-consistent pathways is provided in Section 2.4.4.

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